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large domestic population entering the labour force RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE GCC
could pose certain challenges. Therefore, job creation Figure 3.13 The breakdown of direct jobs in the renewable
is a key priority for the GCC governments. energy sector in the region by country in 2030 (%)
Renewable energy offers a considerable potential for 1% 1%
large-scale job creation. IRENA (2015d) estimates that Bahrain Qatar 3%
? the sector on a global basis (excluding large hydropower Oman 12% هقطنم ياهروشک ر د يلحم عيانص ثا دحا ياه قوشم . دنک يم بذج ريسم
کيياتلووتف ي ديشروخ يژرنا ،فلتخم ياه يرواّنف )LCOE( »ي ديلوت قرب
facilities) supported around 7.7 million direct and
LNG يتح و ماخ تفن ،يا هتسه يژرنا اب هسياقم ر د هجوت لباق تيزم يارا د
يژرنا ?عسوت فا دها رگا indirect jobs in 2014. Project-level data indicates that, 39% Kuwait تيوقت و بولطم ياه تخا??سريز يروآ مهارف ، دازآ قطانم داجيا ل??يبق زا
Saudi Arabia
.)11را دومن( تسا يرواّنف نيا زا شيب يزايتما يارا د يعيبط زاگ ًافرص و تسا
ياهروشک ريذپ دي دجت on average, renewable energy technologies generate و ه??شيش ، دلاوف نوچمه رب يژرنا دو??جوم عيانص اب ييازفا مه لي??سناتپ
هقطنم ر د دي دج لغش داجيا يارب ريذپ دي دجت ياه يژرنا ليسناتپ -5-7
سراف جيلخ يبونج ?يشاح more jobs than fossil-fuel technologies. For instance, 44% نيا ثا دحا يارب هقطنم راک و بسک طيحم ي دنمناوت بجوم زين موينيمولآ
دنز يم نيمخت ،) IRENA( ريذپ دي دجت ياه يژرنا يللملا نيب سناژآ
41
80 زا شيب ، دباي ققحت solar PV projects create at least twice the number of UAE ،سراف جيلخ يبونج هيشاح ?قطنم ياهروشک ،نيا رب هولاع .تسا ه دش عيانص
يژرنا ديلوت تيفرظ تاواگيگ ?يشاح ياهروشک ر د ريذپ دي دجت يژرنا ياه همانرب و فا دها هب يبايت??س د اه هژورپ نيا يلحم نايرجم اريز ؛دنتسه تعنص نيا شرتسگ ليسناتپ يارا د
jobs per unit of electricity generation compared with
عفانم اب مأوت ريذپ دي دجت
ميقتسم لغش رازه 140 هنلااس طسوتم روط هب دناوت يم ،سراف جيلخ يبونج
coal or natural gas (UKERC, 2014). Likewise, countries ياه هژورپ يارجا زا تيامح لاحر د ،يراذگ هيامر??س و تکرا??شم قيرط زا
RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE GCC
يارب يعامتجا و ي داصتقا
هزوح نيا ر د دنناوت يم رفنرازه 210 هب کي دزن ،2030 ر د طقف .دنک داجيا
in the GCC can expect significant job creation through . دنتسه زين )MENA( اقيرفآ لامش و هنايمرواخ ياهروشک رگي د ر د يهباشم
دوش يم لصاح اهروشک نيا
کچوک PV( کيياتلووتف ي ديشروخ يژرنا هکنيا ضرف اب ، دنوش راک هب لوغشم
renewable energy deployment. يرواّنف اب و بوخ ناگ دنزا??س اب تکرا??شم زا نينچمه يلحم تاجناخراک
شهاک ،لغش داجيا ثعاب هک Total jobs in 2030:
لغش نيا زا دصرد85 دنناوت يم )CSP( ي ديشروخ زکرمت و )سايقم گرزب و
37
و يا هناخلگ ياهزاگ راشتنا Q Employment by country 207,000 ،اهراک EPC اي نيمأت و تخاس ،يس دنهم ياه تکرش نينچمه ،بسانم
بآ هجوت لباق شهاک يتح . دنروآ دوجو هب 2030 ات هقطنم م درم يارب ار بسک هبرجت ، دنرب يم لااب ار يموب ي دنمناوت ،تاجناخراک نيا . دنرب يم دوس
IRENA’s analysis indicates that achieving the have declined by around 75% in 2014 compared to
.دننک يم مکحتسم هقطنم ر د ار ريذپ دي دجت ياه يژرنا ماهس و دننک يم
زين اهروشک نيا يفرصم ،لغشرازه100 زا شيب داجيا اب کيياتلووتف تاسيسأت هوبنا داجيا تيلباق the prices at the end of 2009 (IRENA, 2014a). During
region’s renewable energy plans can result in an “Without fuel price reforms, the utility in
that period, the LCOE of utility-scale installations has
Saudi Arabia is unlikely to go for solar.”
. دش دهاوخ نينچمه .درک دهاوخ لي دبت هقطنم نيرفآ لغش تعنص نيرت گرزب هب ار نآ يژرنا تعنص ?عسوت يارب يب??سانم طيحم داجيا هب لماوع نيا مامت
average of 140,000 direct jobs every year, reaching Q Employment by technology halved, with competitive projects regularly being Raed Bkayrat
contracted at around 8 US cents/kWh.
42
يمهم نيرفآ لغ??ش عيانص زين دصرد14 اب W2E و د??صرد31 ا??ب CSP
VP of Business Development for
around 207,000 in 2030. Most of these jobs will be Together, CSP and solar PV (small and large) ريذپ دي دجت يژرنا ?ع??سوت فا دها رگا . دننک يم کمک يموب ر??يذپ دي دجت
Costs in the GCC have been consistent with
Saudi Arabia and the Middle East, First Solar
نيا ر د دناوت يم ،يدصرد12 دو دح مه??س اب زين ي داب يژرنا . دوب دنهاوخ
43
international trends. In fact, developers in the region
concentrated in the UAE and Saudi Arabia (Figure would account for 85% of the jobs in 2030. Massive تاواگيگ 80 زا شيب ، دباي ققحت سراف جيلخ يبونج ?ي??شاح ياهرو??شک
have been leading the cost race in solar PV with
3.13). يراکمه ،نامع و تيوک ،ناتسبرع ياهروشک ر د صوصخ هب ،يژرنا ?عسوت نيا يارب يعامتجا و ي داصتقا عفانم اب مأوت ريذپ دي دجت يژرنا ديلوت تيفرظ
deployment of PV can result in more than 100,000
Q Cost-competitiveness with oil
auction of the second phase of Mohammed bin Rashid
.)11 را دومن( دنک
Al Maktoum Solar Park for a price of 5.85 US cents/
Renewable energy technologies are still competitive
jobs in the GCC – making it the largest employing ياه تخوس فرصم ر د ييوج هفرص رب هولاع هک دو??ش يم لصاح اهروشک
even with the recent fall in the prices of fossil fuels, as
kWh. This announcement has been followed by even
can be seen in Figure 3.6. The LCOEs of the solar PV
lower ones elsewhere, including, the 5.71 US cents/
technology, followed by CSP at 31% of the jobs. Waste
فرصم شهاك و CO راشتنا شهاك ،تخوس فرصم ر د ييوج هفرص -6-7 و يا هناخلگ ياهزاگ راشتنا شهاک ،لغش داجيا بجوم ،يتار داص يلي??سف
2 kWh bid for a project owned by the city of Austin in projects at utility scale in the region are comparable
. دش دهاوخ زين اهروشک نيا يفرصم بآ هجوت لباق شهاک يتح
to energy can also be an important employer with ّ Texas, a 5.53 US cents/kWh solar PPA signed by NV to the LCOE of electricity generation from oil priced at
هقطنم ر د بآ
USD 20 per barrel. With crude oil priced at around USD
Energy in Nevada in the US, and a 4.9 US cents/kWh
ييوج هفرص دوب دهاوخ ر داق ،ريذپ دي دجت يژرنا هب يبايتس د ياه همانرب
RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET ANALYSIS: THE GCC REGION تاعلاطم ساسارب هک تشاد هجوت زين هتکن نيا هب دياب قوف دراوم رب هولاع
35 per barrel 5 , the case for greater integration of solar
50 MW solar PV plant being considered by Taqnia for
PV in the oil-based power sectors of Kuwait and Saudi
Saudi Electric Company in Saudi Arabia (Ayre, 2015).
?يشاح ياهروشک تار داص لباق يلي??سف ياه تخوس فرصم ر د يعمجت لک هب بصن ?نيزه« تبسن ساسارب ي ديلوت قرب يعقاو ?نيزه ،ه دش ماجنا
Figure 3.14 The breakdown of direct jobs in renewable energy in 2030 by technology (thousand jobs) Figure 3.6 LCOE of utility-scale electricity generation technologies in the GCC (US cents/kWh)
20
LCOE (US cents/kWh)
CSP PV (utility) PV (rooftop) Wind Waste to Energy US$
15
ES deployment of PV could create more than 100,000 10 5 SAVINGS IN FUEL CONSUMPTION,
CO 2 EMISSIONS AND WATER
jobs, making it the largest employing technology, fol-
12
30
18
69
78
lowed by CSP with 31% of the jobs. Waste-to-energy
can be an important employer, with around 14% of the 0 WITHDRAWAL LNG Oil Coal** Nuclear***
Gas
Solar PV*
($8-$16/MMbtu)
($1-$8/MMbtu)
($40-$80/Barrel)
jobs, according to conservative estimates that do not Achieving renewable energy plans could result in cu-
RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET ANALYSIS: THE GCC REGION
mulative savings for the region of 2.5 billion barrels of
account for operational jobs in waste collection and * Low = price for second phase of the Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park and High = a conservative (high)
assumption based on project level data and opinion of regional experts
oil equivalent (2015-2030), leading to overall savings
processing (Figure ES 3). Wind energy could also con- ** Low = price for Hassyan Clean Coal Power Plant (at May 2015 coal prices) and High = estimate for coal with CCS
0 50 100 150 200 250 *** Estimated range for nuclear power based on (Mills, 2012) and (Scribbler, 2015)
of USD 55 billion to USD 87 billion, depending on oil
tribute, especially in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Oman. Note: LCOE is one way to examine the cost-competitiveness in a static analysis. LCOE estimates are not a substitute for detailed nodal modelling
and analysis of factors such as backup generation requirements or demand-side management.
and gas prices.
Thousand jobs Sources: Includes information applicable to the period (2014-2015), derived from (Mills, 2015), (Channell et al., 2015), (MANAAR, 2014),
(Scribbler, 2015), (Utilities ME Sta?, 2015) - according to conservative Fuel and emissions savings
around 14% of the jobs
estimates that do not account for operational jobs The results of IRENA’s analysis also show that achieving
Decreasing fuel consumption can also reduce regional
in waste collection and processing. Wind energy can
5 At the time of writing the renewable energy plans for the electricity sectors
Figure ES.5 Emission savings due to renewable energy ياه يرواّنف يارب )LCOE( ي د?يلوت قرب لك هب بصن ?نيزه -11را دو?من
رد ريذپديدجت يروا?ّنف کيکفت هب لغ?ش داجيا لي?سناتپ -12را دومن
carbon footprints, in line with the countries’ Intended
also be a key employer, especially in Saudi Arabia,
in the region can result in cumulative savings of 2.5
deployment plans (MtCO 2 ) Kuwait and Oman (Figure 3.14). billion barrels of oil equivalent (2015-2030). This
44
2030 لاس ر د ،سراف جيلخ يبونج ?يشاح ياهروشك
reduction may lead to an overall savings of USD 55
سراف جيلخ يبونج ?يشاح ياهروشك ر د فلتخم
40
Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) submis-
billion to USD 87 billion, depending on oil and gas
sions to the Paris climate conference (COP21). Carbon 47
Figure 3.15 Fossil fuel savings from GCC renewable energy targets by year and by country
emissions can be reduced by a cumulative total of
Emission savings 67 Annual Fuel Saving Fuel saving in 2030
around 1 gigatonne (Gt) by 2030, resulting in an 8%
BBOE 0.21 0.40 UAE Bahrain Kuwait Oman
0.4 reduction in the region’s per capita carbon footprint
1
ريذپديدجت ياه يژرنا و تسيز طيحم يصصخت ?مانهام 100 GtCO 2 80 0.1 0 able energy plans could result in an overall 3
MtCO2
0.3 (Figure ES 5).
200
155
0.2 In addition to saving CO2 emissions, realising renew-
Qatar
Saudi Arabia reduc-
150
0.06
tion of 16% in water withdrawal in the power sector ,
0.02
2020to 11 trillion litres of water per year This
equivalent
2015
2030
2025
2030
Bahrain
Kuwait energy
would have ecological benefits and reduce
Oman
consumption for water desalination.
GCC Countries
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
UAE
50
23
55-87 billion USD
Discounted* Fuel Savings
6
billion BBOE
RENEWABLES APPLICATION
0 2015 2020 2025 2030 WATER DESALINATION: THE OTHER
Cumulative
ريذپديدجت ياه يژرنا و يژرنا بو?صم ياه همانرب يار?جا اب CO را?شتنا ش?هاك -14را دو?من بوصم ياه همانرب يارجا اب يليسف ياه تخو?س ر د ييوج هفرص -13را دومن
2.5 Fuel Savings
Desalination provides a large share of the region’s
fresh water needs, ranging from 27% in Oman to 87%
2
* Discount rate 5%; Low price scenario (Oil: USD 40/barrel; Gas: USD 8/MMBtu); High price scenario (Oil: USD 80/barrel; Gas: USD 11/MMBtu)
47
سراف جيلخ يبونج ?يشاح ياهروشك ر د ريذپديدجت
سراف جيلخ يبونج ?يشاح ياهروشك رد ريذپديدجت يژرنا
45
in Qatar. It also accounts for a substantial share of total
68 energy consumption in most GCC countries; as much
as 30% for Qatar and the UAE, for example. In Saudi
Arabia, thermal desalination accounts for around 10%
115 of domestic oil consumption. Desalination also draws
considerable volumes of natural gas, where available
67 ?رامش ،مه د لاس
(e.g. in Oman and Qatar).
A transition towards a greater use of renewables for
desalination, especially solar power, can reduce fossil
fuel consumption for exports or more economic uses.
3. The analysis considers water consumption for power generation
in all GCC countries and includes water use during fuel extraction Both grid connected and off-grid desalination can be
only for those countries using high shares of domestic oil cost-competitive. Ongoing research and deployment
resources for generation (Kuwait, Oman and Saudi Arabia).
Water consumption factors for different technologies are derived can enhance the business case. Large-scale renew-
primarily from NREL, (2011), using median values. Total water use able energy-based desalination projects could further
does not consider the sources of water due to lack of available
data. reduce costs through economies of scale.
16