Page 67 - ماهنامه تازه های انرژی شماره 73

Fuels – Natural gas

Growth in gas demand is driven by use in industry and power, with
the use of gas va)r???y????i???n????g204a0c? ???r2o017s???s?? (??c?????o????u????n???t???r???i???e?????s?? ? ??a???n????d?? ??r???e?????g???io??? ??n???s? ???? ???? ??? ?????-?4? ????????

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Fuel – Natural gas

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Europe China

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Growth in natural gas demand is led /???1??????*???
by industry and the power sector. gpTshrohoawewreeatdrhodsfoietnficoaptntoouarwrS'5????lai???sUgX???Rel???R???VPag???rdG????V???sXardHL???DiFsvVae???WW???ebLm???iLRnF???nsQaotbnhrybdee,tghdwleobitboyhavtltehhreeall
Inthe ET scenario, the use of gas power sector remaining relatively
in industry accelerates over the stable at around 20% (pp52-53).
Outlook, while the growth of gas Among the major gas producers,
in the power sector slows.

The increased industrial demand for only North America experiences
gas over the Outlook is largely driven an increase in the share of gas at
bydeveloping economies as they the expense of coal.

continue to industrialize, especially Although the use of gas within
in regions with large gas resources transport grows rapidly, it remains
(Middle East, Africa).Coal-to-gas small relative to industry and power.
switching, especially in China, also
supports gas demand in industry. The speed and pattern of growth
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???? ???T???h? ??e?????i???n???c???r???e???as????e? ???i???n????L???N????G?? ???s???u???p????p???l???ies?????le???a?d????s?? ???????T????h????e????g????r???e???at???e???r?? ???ea??s???e????of tra???n????sp???o????r???t???a?»ti???o???n?? «???? ??????In????C????h????i?n???a,????de.???sp???i????te????s???iz???e????a????ble????in????c???r????e???ases
?? ??????tL???oN???gG???r???ea???a???n???tde????r???p???ci???poe???m???lipn????ee???t???git???ai???o???sn???, eb????se???p???t???we????c????ei???aeln???ly?? ??????? ???cm????o???es? ??a???t???na???sd???vpa???ip???n???et???al???i???ngee????go???av???esrhLaN???s???Ga??;???m???t???ha???er???k???e???d? ??????? ?? ??? ???gin???rod?wo????mt???h???e???os???ut???i???tcs???tp???rripo???sd???u???scu???tp???iop???n???ly?,?,d?ce???a???mu????s???ai???nn? ??dg
??? ? ????in??????E???u???ro????p???e????a?? ??n???d???C???h????in????a???–??tw?????o????o???f????th???e? ?? ???? ?????? ???m???a???i???n? ??c????o???n????s.???tra???i???n???t???o????n pipe????l???in.???e???im? ???p????o???r???t???s??? ???????im????p7o5rt????d???e???p?e?n?d?e?n???c???y? ??t???o?? ??r???is???e???t????o????o???ver
???? ?????l???a????rg???e???s???t???i???m???p???o?? ??r???t????er????s???of? ??g???a????s???. ?? ???? ????? ??? ? ????i???s???c???o????nc????er???ns????a???b????o???u???t???Euro???p???e??’??s? ??????? ????? ?? ??????4????0%?????b???y????2???0???4???0???.????A???ro???u????n???d????h?? ??a???lf???o????f????t???hese
?? ? ????In????t???he????E????T?? ??s???c???e???n???a???ri???o??,???E???u????r???o???p???e???a???n???? ?? ???? ???????td???h???ee???p????eE???n???T???d???se???cn???ec???n???ya???ori???no???,R???t???huessdiae????vf???oe???rl???ogp???am????s???.????eIn???n???t ??? ?????????ai???nd???c???drei???t???mio???ne???a???nl???t???ia???ml???ppi???o???p???re???t???lsin???a?e?r???ec????am???p?? ??eact ?ib?t???yy????f????rom
? ??????????g???a???s????p???r???o???d???u???c????t???io???n ???d???e???c? ??l????in???e???s????by?????4???0??%????, ?? ?????? ???o???f???a????g????lo???b? ??a????ll???y????i???nt???e???g????r???ated???g???a????s???m? ??.???ar???k???e???t? ????? ?????R????u???s???s???i???a ???a???n???d????o????th????e????r? ???C????I???S?????c???o???u???n???tri???e????s, and
causing Europe’s import .?????? ???????e???a? ??s????e???s???t? ??h????e???s???e????c???o?? ??nc????e? ??rns,????a???l???lo????w????in????g?? ??????? ??t???h???e?? ??re??m????a???in????d???e???r???f????ro?? ??m????L???N???G?????.????????
dependency to increase to
Russia to increase slightly its share
around three-quarters in 2040. of European gas demand. As in Europe, as well as pure cost
considerations, China’s choice of
Europe’s existing infrastructure gas supply may also depend on
the energy security implications of
63 means it has the capacity to increase
substantially its imports of either different sources of supply (some
73 ???????L?N????G?????o????r???p????ipeline gas, especially
from Russia. of these energy security issues are
explored in the ‘Less globalization’
scenario on pp 72-75).