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large domestic population entering the labour force RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE GCC
could pose certain challenges. Therefore, job creation Figure 3.13 The breakdown of direct jobs in the renewable
energy sector in the region by country in 2030 (%)
is a key priority for the GCC governments.
يارب نيون ياــهراکهار
ياه تخوس فرصم ر د ييوج هفر
يــناخرچزاب و تــيري دم Renewable energy offers a considerable potential for ص رب هولاع هک دوش يم لصاح اهروشک . دنک يم قيوشت ،ينيمضت قرب ديرخ مک تميق اب يتح
1%
1%
3%
يتعنص ياه دحاو ر د بآ large-scale job creation. IRENA (2015d) estimates that Bahrainجوم ،يتار داص يليسف يارب يزاس هنيمز دننامه زين ريذپ دي دجت قرب فرصم رازاب ?ع??سوت
و يا هناخلگ ياهزاگ راشتنا شهاک ،لغش داجيا ب
Qatar
witteveenandbos.com the sector on a global basis (excluding large hydropower Oman 12% ار شزرا ?ريجنز ياه شخب رياس زا ناراذگ هيامرس ،تاسيسأت نيا تخاس
. دش دهاوخ زين اهروشک نيا يفرصم بآ هجوت لباق شهاک يتح
facilities) supported around 7.7 million direct and 39% Kuwait
ساسارب هک ت??شاد هجوت زين هتکن نيا هب دياب قوف دراوم رب هولاع
26413997 :نارهترتف د indirect jobs in 2014. Project-level data indicates that, Saudi Arabia ر د يلحم ع??يانص ثا دحا ياه قو??شم . دنک يم بذ??ج ري??سم نيا هب
on average, renewable energy technologies generate ياه تخاسريز يروآ مهارف ، دازآ قطانم داجيا ليبق زا هقطنم ياهروشک
?نيزه« تبسن ساسارب ي ديلوت قرب يعقاو ?نيزه ،ه د??ش ماجنا تاعلاطم
more jobs than fossil-fuel technologies. For instance, 44% نوچمه رب يژرنا دوجوم عيانص اب ييازفا مه ليسناتپ تيوقت و بولطم
يژرنا ،فلتخم يا??ه يرواّنف )LCOE( »ي د??يلوت قرب لک هب ب??صن
solar PV projects create at least twice the number of UAE هقطنم راک و بسک طيحم ي دنمناوت بجوم زين موينيمولآ و هشيش ، دلاوف
يژرنا اب ه??سياقم ر د هجوت لباق تيزم يارا د ک??يياتلووتف ي دي??شروخ
jobs per unit of electricity generation compared with
يارا د يعيبط زاگ ًا??فرص و ت??سا LNG يتح و ماخ تفن ،يا هت??سه
coal or natural gas (UKERC, 2014). Likewise, countries ?قطنم ياهروشک ،نيا رب هولاع .ت??سا ه د??ش عيانص نيا ثا دحا يارب
RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE GCC
.)11را دومن( تسا يرواّنف نيا زا شيب يزايتما
in the GCC can expect significant job creation through ؛دنتسه تعنص نيا شرتسگ ليسناتپ يارا د ،سراف جيلخ يبونج هيشاح
renewable energy deployment. ،يراذگ هيامر??س و تکرا??شم قيرط زا اه هژورپ نيا يلحم نايرجم اريز
هقطنم ر د دي دج لغش داجيا يارب اهريذپ دي دجت ليسناتپ -5-7
Total jobs in 2030:
41
نيمخت ،(
Q Employment by country IRENA( ر??يذپ دي دجت ياه يژرنا يللملا نيب سناژآ هنايمرواخ ياهروشک رگي د ر د يهباشم ياه هژورپ يارجا زا تيامح لاحر د
207,000
ياهروشک ر د ريذپ دي دجت يژرنا ياه همانرب و فا دها هب يبايتس د دنز يم
IRENA’s analysis indicates that achieving the have declined by around 75% in 2014 compared to . دنتسه زين )MENA( اقيرفآ لامش و
“Without fuel price reforms, the utility in
the prices at the end of 2009 (IRENA, 2014a). During
region’s renewable energy plans can result in an يرواّنف اب و بوخ ناگ دنزا??س اب تکرا??شم زا نينچمه يلحم تاجناخراک
لغش رازه 140 هنلااس طسوتم روط هب دناوت يم ،سراف جيلخ يبونج ?يشاح
that period, the LCOE of utility-scale installations has
Saudi Arabia is unlikely to go for solar.”
halved, with competitive projects regularly being
average of 140,000 direct jobs every year, reaching Q Employment by technology ،اهراک EPC اي نيمأت و تخاس ،يس دنهم ياه تکرش نينچمه ،بسانم
ر د دنناوت يم رفنرازه 210 هب کي دزن ،2030 ر د طقف .دنک داجيا ميقتسم
37
Raed Bkayrat
contracted at around 8 US cents/kWh.
around 207,000 in 2030. Most of these jobs will be Together, CSP and solar PV (small and large) Costs in the GCC have been consistent with VP of Business Development for
Saudi Arabia and the Middle East, First Solar
ي دي??شروخ يژرنا هکنيا ضر??ف اب ، دنو??ش راک هب لوغ??شم هزوح نيا بسک هبرجت ، دنرب يم لااب ار يموب ي دنمناوت ،تاجناخراک نيا . دنرب يم دوس
concentrated in the UAE and Saudi Arabia (Figure would account for 85% of the jobs in 2030. Massive international trends. In fact, developers in the region
have been leading the cost race in solar PV with
.دننک يم مکحتسم هقطنم ر د ار ريذپ دي دجت ياه يژرنا ماهس و دننک يم
3.13). )CSP( ي دي??شروخ زکرمت و )سايقم گرزب و کچوک PV( کيياتلووتف auction of the second phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Q Cost-competitiveness with oil
deployment of PV can result in more than 100,000
Al Maktoum Solar Park for a price of 5.85 US cents/
Renewable energy technologies are still competitive
jobs in the GCC – making it the largest employing
دوجو هب 2030 ات هقطنم م درم يارب ار لغ??ش نيا زا دصرد85 دنناوت يم يژرنا تعنص ?عسوت يارب يبسانم طيحم داجيا هب لماوع نيا مامت
even with the recent fall in the prices of fossil fuels, as
kWh. This announcement has been followed by even
lower ones elsewhere, including, the 5.71 US cents/
technology, followed by CSP at 31% of the jobs. Waste
زا شيب دا??جيا اب کيياتلووتف تا??سيسأت هو??بنا داجيا ت??يلباق . د??نروآ ريذپ دي دجت يژرنا ?ع??سوت فا دها can be seen in Figure 3.6. The LCOEs of the solar PV
kWh bid for a project owned by the city of Austin in رگا . دننک يم کمک يموب ريذپ دي دجت
projects at utility scale in the region are comparable
to energy can also be an important employer with Texas, a 5.53 US cents/kWh solar PPA signed by NV to the LCOE of electricity generation from oil priced at
لي دبت هقطنم نيرفآ لغ??ش تعنص نيرت گرزب هب ار نآ ،لغ??شرازه100 تاواگيگ 80 زا شيب ، دباي ققحت سراف جيلخ يبونج ?ي??شاح ياهروشک
Energy in Nevada in the US, and a 4.9 US cents/kWh
USD 20 per barrel. With crude oil priced at around USD
RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET ANALYSIS: THE GCC REGION 50 MW solar PV plant being considered by Taqnia for 35 per barrel 5 , the case for greater integration of solar
Saudi Electric Company in Saudi Arabia (Ayre, 2015).م اب مأوت ريذپ دي دجت يژرنا ديلوت تيفرظ
42
زين دصرد14 اب W2E و د??صرد31 اب CSP ن??ينچمه .درک د??هاوخ نيا يارب يعامتجا و ي داصتقا عفان PV in the oil-based power sectors of Kuwait and Saudi
ET ENERGY T DAY Figure 3.14 The breakdown of direct jobs in renewable energy in 2030 by technology (thousand jobs)
Iran Energy News Agancy Figure 3.6 LCOE of utility-scale electricity generation technologies in the GCC (US cents/kWh)
20
LCOE (US cents/kWh)
CSP PV (utility) PV (rooftop) Wind Waste to Energy US$
يژرنا ?عسوت فا دها رگا 15
ياهروشک ريذپ دي دجت
سراف جيلخ يبونج ?يشاح 10
ES
80 زا شيب ، دباي ققحت deployment of PV could create more than 100,000 SAVINGS IN FUEL CONSUMPTION,
يژرنا ديلوت تيفرظ تاواگيگ jobs, making it the largest employin 18g technology, fol- 5 CO 2 EMISSIONS AND WATER
78
30
12
69
عفانم اب مأوت ريذپ دي دجت lowed by CSP with 31% of the jobs. Waste-to-energy 0 WITHDRAWAL
LNG
Oil
Gas
يارب يعامتجا و ي داصتقا can be an important employer, with around 14% of the Solar PV* ($1-$8/MMbtu) ($8-$16/MMbtu) ($40-$80/Barrel) Coal** Nuclear***
دوش يم لصاح اهروشک نيا jobs, according to conservative estimates that do not Achieving renewable energy plans could result in cu-
RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET ANALYSIS: THE GCC REGION
assumption based on project level data and opinion of regional expertsegion of 2.5 billion barrels of
mulative savings for the r
شهاک ،لغش داجيا ثعاب هک account for operational jobs in waste collection and * Low = price for second phase of the Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park and High = a conservative (high)
** Low = price for Hassyan Clean Coal Power Plant (at May 2015 coal prices) and High = estimate for coal with CCS
oil equivalent (2015-2030), leading to overall savings
200
250
150
100
50
و يا هناخلگ ياهزاگ راشتنا 0 processing (Figure ES 3). Wind energy could also con- *** Estimated range for nuclear power based on (Mills, 2012) and (Scribbler, 2015)
Note: LCOE is one way to examine the cost-competitiveness in a static analysis. LCOE estimates are not a substitute for detailed nodal modelling
of USD 55 billion to USD 87 billion, depending on oil
Thousand jobs
بآ هجوت لباق شهاک يتح tribute, especially in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Oman. and analysis of factors such as backup generation requirements or demand-side management.
Sources: Includes information applicable to the period (2014-2015), derived from (Mills, 2015), (Channell et al., 2015), (MANAAR, 2014),
and gas prices.
زين اهروشک نيا يفرصم (Scribbler, 2015), (Utilities ME Sta?, 2015)
around 14% of the jobs - according to conservative Fuel and emissions savings
Decreasing fuel consumption can also reduce regional
estimates
5 At the time of writing that do not account for operational jobs
The results of IRENA’s analysis also show that achieving
. دش دهاوخ رد ريذپديدجت يرواّنف کيکفت هب لغ?ش داجيا ليسناتپ -12را دومن ياه يرواّنف يارب )LCOE( ي د?يلوت قرب لک هب بصن ?نيزه -11را دو?من
in waste collection and processing. Wind energy can
the renewable energy plans for the electricity sectors
Figure ES.5 Emis 2030 لاس ر د ،سراف جيلخ يبونج ?يشاح ياهروشک also be a key employer, especially in Saudi Arabia, in the region can result in cumulative savings of 2.5
44sion savings due to renewable energy
carbon footprints, in line with the countries’ Intended
40
سراف جيلخ يبونج ?يشاح ياهروشک ر د فلتخم This
deployment plans (MtCO 2 ) Kuwait and Oman (Figure 3.14). billion barrels of oil equivalent (2015-2030).
Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) submis- 47
reduction may lead to an overall savings of USD 55
billion to USD 87 billion, depending on oil and gas
sions to the Paris climate conference (COP21). Carbon
Figure 3.15 Fossil fuel savings from GCC renewable energy targets by year and by country
67
emissions can be reduced by a cumulative total of
Emission savings Annual Fuel Saving Fuel saving in 2030
around 1 gigatonne (Gt) by 2030, resulting in an 8%
BBOE 0.40 Bahrain Kuwait
0.4 reduction in the region’s per capita carbon footprint
1 0.2 In addition to saving CO2 emissions, realising renew-
MtCO2
200 0.3 (Figure ES 5). UAE
Oman
0.21
Qatar
Saudi Arabia reduc-
150 GtCO 2 155 0.1 able energy plans could result in an overall
0.06
tion of 16% in water withdrawal in the power sector ,
3
0.02
2020to 11 trillion litres of water per year This
equivalent 2025 2030 2030
0
2015
80
Bahrain
Kuwait energy
100 would have ecological benefits and reduce
consumption for water desalination. Oman
Qatar
GCC Countries
Saudi Arabia
50 23 55-87 billion USD UAE
Discounted* Fuel Savings
6 WATER DESALINATION: THE OTHER
billion BBOE
0 RENEWABLES APPLICATION
Cumulative
2015 2020 2025 2030 2.5 Fuel Savings
Desalination provides a large share of the region’s
يژرنا بو?صم ياه همانرب يار?جا اب CO را?شتنا ش?هاک -14را دو?من بوصم ياه همانرب يارجا اب يليسف ياه تخو?س ر د ييوج هفرص -13را دومن
fresh water needs, ranging from 27% in Oman to 87%
2
47 * Discount rate 5%; Low price scenario (Oil: USD 40/barrel; Gas: USD 8/MMBtu); High price scenario (Oil: USD 80/barrel; Gas: USD 11/MMBtu)
سراف جيلخ يبونج ?يشاح ياهروشک ر د ريذپديدجت in Qatar. It also accounts for a substantial share of total
سراف جيلخ يبونج ?يشاح ياهروشک رد ريذپديدجت يژرنا
45
energy consumption in most GCC countries; as much
68
as 30% for Qatar and the UAE, for example. In Saudi
Arabia, thermal desalination accounts for around 10%
77 of domestic oil consumption. Desalination also draws
ريذپ دي دـجت ياه يژرنا و
مو د ?رامش لوا لاس
considerable volumes of natural gas, where available
(e.g. in Oman and Qatar).
A transition towards a greater use of renewables for
desalination, especially solar power, can reduce fossil
fuel consumption for exports or more economic uses.
3. The analysis considers water consumption for power generation
in all GCC countries and includes water use during fuel extraction Both grid connected and off-grid desalination can be
only for those countries using high shares of domestic oil cost-competitive. Ongoing research and deployment
resources for generation (Kuwait, Oman and Saudi Arabia).
Water consumption factors for different technologies are derived can enhance the business case. Large-scale renew-
primarily from NREL, (2011), using median values. Total water use
does not consider the sources of water due to lack of available able energy-based desalination projects could further
data. reduce costs through economies of scale.
16